Election tipping points

Not long before the end of 2007, the Des Moines Register released its final poll before tomorrow's Iowa caucuses. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama got a huge boost, with 32 percent of the vote, compared with Hillary Clinton's 25 percent and John Edwards's 24 percent. Mike Huckabee is leading Republicans with 32 percent, while former Iowa front-runner Mitt Romney has 26 percent. There was much debate yesterday about the importance of the Register's poll, with the Clinton and Edwards campaigns questioning this year's untraditional method of polling more independents. Of course so much will depend on turnout, thus making the caucuses fairly unpredictable, but ever since I read the results I have been saying that if Obama wins Iowa and subsequently the nomination, I will credit his boost in this poll. As one of my political-science friends pointed out to me and as I discussed in my last post, so many people vote based on who is leading the pack, who they think is going to win and not who they actually want to win, which makes the results of polls like the Register's almost unfairly important because they have the potential to tip an election.

Another important thing to take from the Register poll is that Obama does well with independents, showing he has the potential to bring a lot of them in during the general election. What an interesting showdown it would be Obama and John McCain, who is doing well in New Hampshire, got the nomination on each side.

But Obama's, or any Democratic nominee's, ability to win over independent voters may be hindered if New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs, which has been in the works even before he left the Republican party in June. He has so far denied he chasing a presidential bid, but news stories and blogs follow his every move, including an upcoming conference in Oklahoma that many suspect will be the kick-off of his presidential run as an independent candidate. Just as many blame Ralph Nader, who endorsed John Edwards today, for Al Gore's loss in 2000, Bloomberg could tip the 2008 general election in favor of Republicans in a year Democrats cannot afford to lose.