Races to Watch

If you’re not from the area, you probably didn’t pay much attention to Missouri before Super Tuesday. Maybe it didn’t have enough delegates to matter, or you simply forgot this fly-over state existed. But, for anyone who wanted to see a political showdown that night, the Show-Me state delivered; both parties had very close primaries in this bellwether state that for nearly 100 years – with just one exception, in 1956 – has voted for the general-election candidate who eventually won the presidency.

The Democratic field is now narrowed down to just two candidates, and the race could scarcely have been closer. After the polls closed at 7 p.m. central time, Hillary Clinton had a slight edge over Barack Obama. Around 11 p.m., the Associated Press called the state for her. But it soon reneged that projection and labeled the race too close to call. Then, at 11:40 p.m., MSNBC and the AP named Barack Obama the “apparent,” and not projected, winner. Twenty minutes later, the network the wire service went ahead and officially projected the victory for Obama, and it stayed that way for the rest of the night, with the final count coming in at 49 percent for Obama and 48 percent for Clinton. The numbers are so close that Clinton can call for a recount.

On the Republican side, John McCain and Mike Huckabee were battling it out neck and neck after the polls closed. At first the GOP maverick trailed behind the bona fide religious conservative, who was leading 33 percent to 32 percent. But then the numbers flipped, and McCain ended the night with all of this Midwestern swing state’s 58 delegates.

The close divides in both parties represent opposite trends. On the Democratic side, people seem torn about whom to vote for, as most would be relatively happy with either candidate as their nominee.

“I voted for Obama, but then I felt awful,” my 60-year-old mother, who is demographically a shoe-in for Clinton, said. “Afterward I got a call from Hillary. It was the best tone of voice she’s ever used…I just wanted her to be my girlfriend and call me any day. She just sounded like a sincere, wonderful human being, and I felt bad that I had forsaken her.”

And where did the John Edwards vote go? Samantha Olds, a former Edwards volunteer, said she and her friends from the campaign aren’t breaking definitively either way.

“I decided finally to vote for Obama,” she said of her labored decision after she was dismayed by Edwards’s withdrawal. “At the end of the day, Obama captures part of the appeal that Edwards did…He has a similar fire.”

But, she said, many of her co-workers have decided to go for Clinton, and she couldn’t point to one feature that divided the Obama and Clinton groups.

In the end, Democrats who had trouble making up their minds won’t have to feel guilty; the delegate count from Missouri will hardly differ between the two candidates. Right now, Obama has 13 pledged delegates and Clinton has 12. Another 47 have yet to be divided based on the votes in the state’s nine congressional districts.

“We expect to announce that at the end of the week,” Jack Cardetti, a spokesman for the Missouri Democratic Party, told me Wednesday. Sixteen super delegates will go to the convention unbound by the state’s popular vote.

Conversely, among Republicans, going to the polls for most meant standing up for one of two starkly different candidates. Mitt Romney, who has both conservative and moderate credentials, didn’t get enough votes to significantly rival McCain or Huckabee on Tuesday, and the stiff competition between the latter two represents the riff within the party – to choose a more electable but moderate candidate or a candidate who represents the conservative religious values that have so helped the GOP in recent decades.

Kathy St. Clair, 47-year-old mother of two who attends a Baptist church every Sunday, voted for Huckabee and was frustrated and disappointed when he didn’t win the race.

“I have read [Huckabee’s] views on the subjects and the issues that are very important to me, and he aligns best with values,” she told me in a passionate and genuine voice. “I vote based on my values, and there would be no one upholding my values if McCain is the nominee.”

The Kansas Democratic caucus was less exciting and probably warranted the small amount of attention it got. Obama’s mother was born in the state, and the governor, Kathleen Sebelius, endorsed him last week, after she gave the Democratic response to the president’s State of the Union address. And surely enough, Obama came out way on top, beating Clinton 74 percent to 25.8 percent – which gives Obama 23 delegates and Clinton nine, with nine super delegates unpledged until the convention.

But Democratic-only caucuses did produce one exciting thing in the traditionally Republican stronghold – a high number of voters. For example, Johnson County, a relatively wealthy suburb of Kansas City that borders Missouri, could not be more demographically Republican – rich, white and religious. But, precincts in the county had lines out the door because they didn’t prepare for the volume of Democratic voters that showed up.

There is at least one thing to take from these two states’ nominating contests – start paying attention. While the Kansas caucus may not have been particularly exciting, the enthusiasm and high number of voters could make for an interesting general election if Obama is the Democratic nominee. The governor’s endorsement combined with Obama’s family ties to the state and fire shown by voters on Tuesday could shade this deep-red state at least a little bit purple, and perhaps even blue, by November. And be sure to keep an eye on Missouri – the diversity of this bellwether state’s population makes it a good sampling of the country, and in about 100 years its voters have only failed once at picking the next president.